With support from the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth, UMDI produces population projections by age and sex for all Massachusetts municipalities. 

The most recent “UMDI Vintage 2024” projections are available here for download by sex and 5-year age group for each city, town, county, and the state total in 5-year intervals to 2050. A report describing the inputs and methods used for the V2024 series is also available here for download. To view the projections, see also our interactive projections dashboard.

Modeled projections do not purport to predict the future, but rather may serve as points of reference for planners and researchers. In general, projections for small geographies and distant futures will be less predictive than projections for larger populations and near terms. Like all forecasts, the UMDI projections make assumptions about how past or recent trends will continue into the future.

For the V2024 series, we use a component-of-change method based on trends including: fertility from 2012 through 2022 and mortality from 2010 through 2021 at the town-level; regional, gross migration-by-age trends observed in the 2012-2019 American Community Survey; residual net migration trends observed between the 2010 and 2020 Censuses; and 2020 launch populations by age and sex from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Census 2020 Demographic and Housing Characteristics file with additional modifications to account for child undercounts and population challenges. For more information on the data sources and methodology used in the V2024 series, download the full methods description.

UMDI also produces specialized population projections on a contract basis, including enrollment projections; small-area, detailed population projections by age, sex, race, and ethnicity; and projections of special populations. Contact us for more information on specialized projections work.

For more information:
Please contact Susan Strate at (413) 577-0753 or sstrate@donahue.umass.edu.