Massachusetts Population Projections
With support from the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth and the Massachusetts Department of Transportation, UMDI produces population projections by age and sex for all Massachusetts municipalities.
The most recent “UMDI-DOT Vintage 2022” projections are available here for download by sex and 5-year age group for each city, town, county, and state region in 5-year intervals to 2050. A report describing the inputs and methods used for the V2022 series is also available here for download. To view the projections, see also our interactive projections dashboard.
Modeled projections do not purport to predict the future, but rather may serve as points of reference for planners and researchers. In general, projections for small geographies and distant futures will be less predictive than projections for larger populations and near terms. Like all forecasts, the UMDI projections make assumptions about how past or recent trends will continue into the future.
For the V2022 series, UMDI uses a component-of-change method based on trends observed in: town-level fertility and mortality from 2010 through 2019; regional, gross migration-by-age trends observed in data from the 2012-2019 American Community Survey; residual net-migration-by-age trends observed from 2010 through 2019 at the county level; and estimated 2020 launch populations by age and sex controlled to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Census 2020 PL-94 population counts of under 18 and 18-plus populations at the town level. It is important to note that Census 2020 counts by 5-year age groups and by sex were not available at the time of the V2022 series production, such that the populations by 5-year age group in 2020 in the V2022 series data will not match the 5-year age groups in the 2020 Census counts. For more information on the data sources and methodology used in the V2022 series, download the full methods description.
UMDI also produces specialized population projections on a contract basis, including enrollment projections; small-area, detailed population projections by age, sex, race, and ethnicity; and projections of special populations. Contact us for more information on specialized projections work.
For more information:
Please contact Susan Strate at (413) 577-0753 or firstname.lastname@example.org.