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MassBenchmarks reexamines 2011 job growth numbers

In light of the intense scrutiny focused upon recent revisions in state employment data and the impact those adjustments have had on the state’s economic growth numbers, MassBenchmarks economists have followed up those revisions with an unofficial estimate of job growth numbers for 2011. This unofficial estimate serves as a reexamination of the previous revision, which measured job growth at dramatically lower levels than the initial data indicated.

Due to this major discrepancy in job growth numbers, MassBenchmarks felt compelled to reexamine the data. Looking at new Massachusetts employment data (ES-202) for the third quarter of 2011, which includes Massachusetts employers who are participants in the state’s Unemployment Insurance (UI) system, MassBenchmarks was able to make a more accurate assessment, finding that the state added 26,100  jobs in the third quarter of 2011, rather than losing 4,200 jobs as reported in the previous revision.

These new estimates of job growth in the third quarter of 2011 suggest that during the first nine months of 2011 (from December 2010 to September 2011), Massachusetts added 38,900 jobs rather than the BLS’ official estimate of 2,300. This means that number of jobs added in September 2011 is estimated to be 36,600 more than the current official estimate for that month (and 13,100 more than the pre-revision official estimates).

The full bulletin explains all the revisions, and MassBenchmarks has also provided methodology behind their most current estimations.

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