Donahue Data Dash: Net Coverage Error Estimates for Young Children in the 2020 Census
June 2024
On April 11th, 2024, the U.S. Census Bureau released net coverage error estimates of young children (aged 0-4) in the 2020 Census at the state and county-level. The newly released findings utilize the Census Bureau’s Demographic Analysis population estimates to pinpoint undercounts of young children in counties across the U.S. The findings suggest that the largest undercounts by state were most prominent along the west coast, the South, and the Southwest regions of the U.S. To improve the count of young children in the 2030 Census, the Census Bureau also assessed the relationship between net coverage errors and socioeconomic factors related to family structure, education, housing, and poverty.
According to the data release, Massachusetts ranked 25th amongst all states with a net coverage error estimate of -4.15%, meaning that an estimated 4.15% of all children in the state between the ages of 0 to 4 years old, or 14,734 children, were not counted in the 2020 Census. The counties in Massachusetts with the greatest undercounts by percentage were Hampden (-6.4%), Suffolk (-5.71%), and Essex (-5.52%). The only counties in the state with a positive net coverage error, or an estimated overcount of the young child population, were Hampshire (2.62%) and Franklin (0.96%).
The socioeconomic characteristics assessed by the Census Bureau as part of the data release were percentage figures for female-headed households, adults aged 25+ without a high school degree, renter occupied housing units, and children under 18 in poverty. The characteristics that showed the greatest correlation with Massachusetts county-level net coverage errors were adults aged 25+ without a high school degree and female-headed households. The self-response rates observed during the 2020 Census, a census operational metric assessed by researchers at UMDI, demonstrated little correlation with net coverage errors.
The dashboard below and downloadable report both include greater detail on the net coverage errors by county, along with scatterplots depicting the relationship between estimated net coverage errors by county and the associated characteristics included in the Census Bureau’s research.
Download the brief: Summary of the U.S. Census Bureau’s State and County-Level Net Coverage Error Findings for Young Children in the 2020 Census
