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New York Times: Rhode Island Likely to Lose a House Seat

Susan Strate, population estimates program manager at the University of Massachusetts Donahue Institute was quoted in an article on the New York Times Politics page that looked at population shifts which are likely to result in a reallocation of House seats.

According to population estimates released last month, only two states — Rhode Island and Vermont — lost people from July 2011 to July 2012. Vermont lost more (581) than Rhode Island (354), but Vermont already has only one House seat. All states are required to have at least one.

Other states like New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Illinois could also be on track to lose a seat in 2020 because their population growth is not as strong as that in the mountain west and the southeast.

The biggest winner after the 2020 Census is likely to be Texas, which at this rate is projected to gain three seats; California and Florida are each likely to gain one.

Strate attributed the population drain in Rhode Island to a combination of factors. “There were more deaths, fewer births, an older population and a general outflow of people to the South and the West that’s been happening for years,” she said, though the number of births still exceeds the number of deaths.

The Population Estimates Program is housed within the UMass Donahue Institute’s Economic and Public Policy group. As part of the (Massachusetts) State Data Center, the PEP provides the US Census Bureau with the data necessary to improve the accuracy of its estimates.

Read article: Rhode Island Likely To Lose House Seat

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